http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-13/pimco-s-el-erian-discusses-deflation-fed-u-s-economy-video.html
I am concerned that bond holder managers do not understand the mechanisms of inflation/dis-inflation. Like the Fed, general non-specific devaluation comments are not beneficial to bond holders.
We have more of a chance to see inflation. We are no longer in a devaluation phase of the dollar. The cost for demand of the dollar is 300% What he is doing by discussing, this is showing the disparity between what is perceived and what is known. This ratio use to be much higher. Bond holders are the only people who want inflation.
This man should of at least waited to discuss this after the Michigan confidence numbers were released. The way the market reacted to those numbers shows there is a cost for stability. That is inflation. As a bond manager he should have discussed this new bit of information showing inflation and stability.
The Bond managers should have experience in transforming the system without the knowledge of the system. They manage more money than the entire GDP of the world over time. They should be explaining how the interest of the money they are making goes to support hospitals, education, infrastructure... What the bonds were issued to support.
Friday, August 13, 2010
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Interest rates
In order to fix this economy, we must experience high interest. It should cost 25% to borrow money. Bonds must have a high return. The system will fail from a lack of confidence if this rule is not followed.
So you can have high interest rates and volatility in stock prices or stability in stock prices and lower interest rates. Dividends are the only way to stabilize stock prices. When dividends are paid confidence returns.
So you can have high interest rates and volatility in stock prices or stability in stock prices and lower interest rates. Dividends are the only way to stabilize stock prices. When dividends are paid confidence returns.
Monday, August 9, 2010
HP is being replaced by a failure of Moore's Law
Sex Scandal. Really. The firing of HP's exec over sex, does detract from the poor sales figures.
The purchase of Palm was an attempt to use an existing mobile development platform to fight with RIM, Apple, and Google. That is not a fight I would choose to be in.
The Palm 5 was the best platform I have tested that HP/palm had. But that was 10+ years ago.
The fallacy, that HP will fail over and everyone else needs to reevaluate is Moore's Law. The doubling of processor power is not linear over time. There needs to be a point when I and companies say I have enough computing power. I just need a UI to interface with the system.
Moore's law is not a valid mechanism for determining demand in computer science.
Moore's Law
Addendum 8/11/2010
Look, I have had found some of the best laptops are HP. It will be ironic if HP fails because it tried to go mobile. I am more concerned that the board does not understand this. Demand for processors is not linear. I think sanity has left the laptop industry.
The purchase of Palm was an attempt to use an existing mobile development platform to fight with RIM, Apple, and Google. That is not a fight I would choose to be in.
The Palm 5 was the best platform I have tested that HP/palm had. But that was 10+ years ago.
The fallacy, that HP will fail over and everyone else needs to reevaluate is Moore's Law. The doubling of processor power is not linear over time. There needs to be a point when I and companies say I have enough computing power. I just need a UI to interface with the system.
Moore's law is not a valid mechanism for determining demand in computer science.
Moore's Law
Addendum 8/11/2010
Look, I have had found some of the best laptops are HP. It will be ironic if HP fails because it tried to go mobile. I am more concerned that the board does not understand this. Demand for processors is not linear. I think sanity has left the laptop industry.
Rats are jumping the Goldman Ship
Every day I see stories of Goldman employees moving on to more stable companies.
Today Goldman reduced the outlook on the US economy.
It even seems that Goldman cannot sell or buy $100m of Skype. They required their competition to list Skype. I just find that interesting.
GS 10-Q 08/09/2010
Now Margret Brennen is reporting a GS employee who I believe was 'Thrown under the bus'. Really, Goldman expect us to believe that this fab dude was capable of destroying this longstanding company. That is just a major sign of incompetence in the management of the company.
Today Goldman reduced the outlook on the US economy.
It even seems that Goldman cannot sell or buy $100m of Skype. They required their competition to list Skype. I just find that interesting.
GS 10-Q 08/09/2010
Now Margret Brennen is reporting a GS employee who I believe was 'Thrown under the bus'. Really, Goldman expect us to believe that this fab dude was capable of destroying this longstanding company. That is just a major sign of incompetence in the management of the company.
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